A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
